2005-04-02
DISTOPIAS
The Long Emergency | James Howard Kunstler writes in Rolling Stone, his thoughts on where we seem to be going in the future | It is not a rosy scenario | On the other hand, it's not a read we can afford to ignore |
Recognition of potential undesirable outcomes is, really, the first step in preparing for different directions to explore | It is not enough to run from the Jerimiahs | Hear what they have to say | Some excerpts:
Where do we go from here? That's called planning, mates | Personal downsizing, giving the heave-ho to the charlatans who got us here [thinking of only their own personal gain] and moving forward | The bill always comes in the mail | We had best be figuring out how to pay it | ¶ 07:36
The Long Emergency | James Howard Kunstler writes in Rolling Stone, his thoughts on where we seem to be going in the future | It is not a rosy scenario | On the other hand, it's not a read we can afford to ignore |
Recognition of potential undesirable outcomes is, really, the first step in preparing for different directions to explore | It is not enough to run from the Jerimiahs | Hear what they have to say | Some excerpts:
A few weeks ago, the price of oil ratcheted above fifty-five dollars a barrel, which isNow read The whole story | Kunstler does project some hope and provides hints at what he thinks we are going to have to do to get around this dark corner |about twenty dollars a barrel more than a year ago. The next day, the oil story was buried on page six of the New York Times business section. Apparently, the price of oil is not considered significant news, even when it goes up five bucks a barrel in the span of ten days...
"...we face the end of the cheap-fossil-fuel era. It is no exaggeration to state that reliable supplies of cheap oil and natural gas underlie everything we identify as the necessities of modern life -- not to mention all of its comforts and luxuries: central heating, air conditioning, cars, airplanes, electric lights, inexpensive clothing, recorded music, movies, hip-replacement surgery, national defense -- you name it...
"...No combination of alternative fuels will allow us to run American life the way we have been used to running it, or even a substantialfraction of it. The wonders of steady technological progress achieved through the reign of cheap oil have lulled us into a kind of Jiminy Cricket syndrome, leading many Americans to believe that anything we wish for hard enough will come true. These days, even people who ought to know better are wishing ardently for a seamless transition from fossil fuels to their putative replacements.
"...If we wish to keep the lights on in America after 2020, we may indeed have to resort to nuclear power, with all its practical problems and eco-conundrums. Under optimal conditions, it could take ten years to get a new generation of nuclear power plants into operation, and the price may be beyond our means. Uranium is also a resource in finite supply. We are no closer to the moredifficult project of atomic fusion, by the way, than we were in the 1970s.
"...The upshot of all this is that we are entering a historical period of potentially great instability, turbulence and hardship. Obviously, geopolitical maneuvering around the world's richest energy regions has already led to war and promises more international military conflict. Since the Middle East contains two-thirds of the world's remaining oil supplies, the U.S. has attempted desperately to stabilize the region by, in effect, opening a big police station in Iraq. The intent was not just to secure Iraq's oil but to modify and influence the behavior of neighboring states around the Persian Gulf, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia. The results have been far from entirely positive, and our future prospects in that part of the world are not something we can feel altogether confident about...
Where do we go from here? That's called planning, mates | Personal downsizing, giving the heave-ho to the charlatans who got us here [thinking of only their own personal gain] and moving forward | The bill always comes in the mail | We had best be figuring out how to pay it | ¶ 07:36
